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BREAKTHROUGH OF THE YEAR:
Areas to Watch in 2004

Microbe militia. Biodefense research exploded in 2003, and the boom will continue in 2004. Expect advances in the basic biology of a range of little-studied pathogens that cause diseases including plague, anthrax, tularemia, botulism, and hemorrhagic fevers, as well as a torrent of newly sequenced genomes, often including multiple strains of the same bug. At the same time, look for major steps in the development of new or improved vaccines for smallpox, anthrax, and Ebola, as well as several antiviral drugs and an antidote to botulinum toxin. Meanwhile, measures to keep a lid on data that could help aspiring bioterrorists will continue to provoke debate.

CREDIT: ILLUSTRATION BY TERRY SMITH;

Genome data deluge. With the sequence of the human genome in hand, biologists are finding that they need much more data to make sense of it. Toward that end, several more large-scale, data- intensive projects are in the works. The SNP Consortium and Haplotype Map Project are seeking patterns in human genetic variations; microarrays are generating information on gene expression; proteomics projects are detailing the functions and interactions of proteins; and new pilot programs are working to streamline the identification of gene function. Expect a flood of information in 2004 and a plethora of new databases, software, and standards for how these data are collected and presented--but continued debate about how to use and coordinate it all. New gene discoveries and insights into how organisms are related, particularly what makes humans different from chimps, should make for an interesting year.

Open sesame. Will 2004 be the year scientists open their hearts--and their wallets--to open-access scientific journals? A slew of publishers will launch experiments in which authors will pay publication charges and journals will make their papers freely accessible over the Internet. Advocates say that the author-pays approach will speed the flow of scientific information, but critics predict that the business model will be a flop, particularly outside the relatively flush biomedical sciences.

Bottoms up. Recently, two "B factories" that produce particles containing the heavy "bottom" quark have been hinting at physics beyond the Standard Model. Next year may well set the physics community abuzz as the factories, one in California and the other in Tsukuba, Japan, create another swarm of B's. Unexpectedly, the decay of bottom-quark-containing particles doesn't quite match what the Standard Model predicts. This might be a sign of supersymmetry or other exotic physics. The issue probably won't be fully resolved by year's end, but new data should make the anomaly either stand in stark relief or largely disappear.

Digging deeper. After decades of toiling to identify fungi, nematodes, and innumerable other organisms that live belowground, soil scientists have started to ask--and answer--ecological questions. Look for more studies of how microbes contribute to greenhouse gases and some plants become invasive by escaping soil pathogens. The ultimate pay dirt may be more accurate knowledge of soils' impact on climate change and better strategies for sustainable agriculture.

Science and security. Increasingly tough antiterror measures may not be good for U.S. science. Foreign scientists continue to have trouble entering the country due to tougher visa reviews, and research leaders worry that a host of other rules--from polygraph tests for some Department of Energy scientists, to export regulations--have made science an increasingly unattractive career. Other nations are considering adopting similar rules, which may further complicate the global sharing of ideas. Look for continuing friction over the costs and benefits of tighter security--and government moves to roll back a few rules that may have gone too far.

Online Extras on Areas to Watch

Mars Missions

R. Kerr, "Putting Martian Science to the Test," Science 301, 1832 (2003) R. Kerr, "A-Roving We Will Go, Slowly," Science 301, 1834 (2003) R. Kerr, "Eons of a Cold, Dry, Dusty Mars," Science 301, 1037 (2003) R. Kerr, "Running Water Eroded a Frigid Early Mars," Science 300, 1496 (2003) R. Kerr, "Iceball Mars?," Science 300, 234 (2003) R. Kerr, "Scientists Pick Two Sweet Spots for Rovers on Mars," Science 299, 326 (2003) NASA Mars Exploration Program Mars Exploration Rover Mission Engaging, information-packed sites on NASA's Mars efforts, including rovers Spirit and Opportunity. Beagle 2 Site of British-led mission includes a Weblog, information on the spacecraft's scientific mission and technical story, and updates on the descent (scheduled for Christmas Day 2003).

Biodefense

D. Malakoff, "U.S. Biodefense Boom: Eight New Study Centers," Science 301, 1450 (2003) M. Enserink, "New Biodefense Splurge Creates Hotbeds, Shatters Dreams," Science 302, 206 (2003) B. Budowle, "Building Microbial Forensics as a Response to Bioterrorism," Science 302, 1852 (2003) Biotechnology Research in an Age of Terrorism: Confronting the "Dual Use" Dilemma National Research Council report on balancing science and security. Countering Bioterrorism: The Role of Science and Technology A 2002 report from the National Academies' Institute of Medicine NIAID Progress Report [PDF] Interim report, published August 2003, about the biodefense effort at the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. NIAID Biodefense Research Rich NIAID site on the Institute's biodefense research undertakings; includes extensive public-outreach section and a page devoted to the Institute's strategic plan for biodefense.

Genome Data

R. Service, "Public Projects Gear up to Chart the Protein Landscape," Science 302, 1316 (2003) M. Gerstein et al., "Integrating Interactomes," Science 295, 284 (2002) J. Quackenbush, "Microarrays, Guilt by Association," Science 302, 240 (2003) M. Branca, "Putting Gene Arrays to the Test," Science 300, 238 (2003) Microarray Gene Expression Data Society A society working to improve microarray standards and use. Spectroscopy Now: Proteomics Primer on proteomics with tutorials and news. The SNP Consortium Web site National Human Genome Research Institute NHGRI Web site has programs and online lectures on genome-related projects.

Open Access

D. Malakoff, News Focus: Scientific Publishing "Opening the Books on Open Access," Science 302, 550 (2003) "The Fight Over a Phrase," Science 302, 550 (2003) "Money Woes Force Some to Change Course," Science 302, 550 (2003) "House Bill Triggers Internecine Battle," Science 302, 550 (2003) Open Access News Weblog providing news and views from the "free online scholarship (FOS) movement."

B Meson Physics

K. Abe et al., "Measurement of Time-Dependent CP-Violating Asymmetries in B0 --> phi Ks0, K+ K- Ks0, and eta' Ks0 Decays" (2003) [arXiv.org preprint server] BABAR B-factory at the Stanford Linear Accelerator Center seeking out the roots of matter-antimatter asymmetry. High-Energy Accelerator Research Organization (KEK) Organization managing and operating the KEKB B-factory at Tsukuba, Japan, the site of the Belle experiment. CP Violation in B meson decay: FAQ (from Kay Kinoshita, University of Cincinnati Physics Department)

Soil Science

C. W. Schadt et al., "Seasonal Dynamics of Previously Unknown Fungal Lineages in Tundra Soils," Science 301, 1359 (2003) E. Pennisi, "Neither Cold Nor Snow Stops Tundra Fungi," Science 301, 1307 (2003) W. H. Van der Putten, "Plant Population Biology: How to Be Invasive," Nature 417, 32 (2002) International Society for Microbial Ecology Soil Ecology Society Soil Science Society of America Mycorrhiza Information Exchange Soils Zoo Brief tour of soil biodiversity, from University of Adelaide.

Science and Security

D. J. Galas and H. Riggs, "Global Science and U.S. Security" (editorial), Science, 300, 1847 (2003) D. Kennedy, "Scientific Exchange: Storm Rising?" (editorial), Science, 301, 437 (2003) T. Walliman, "Science and Security: A European View" (letter), Science, 301, 462 (2003) M. Enserink, "Panel Seeks to Balance Science and Security," Science, 302, 206 (2003) D. Malakoff and M. Enserink, "Researchers Await Government Response to Self-Regulation Plea," Science, 302, 368 (2003) Background Paper on Science and Security in an Age of Terrorism From the National Academy of Sciences Web site. Scientific Openness and National Security Workshop Web site of 9 January 2003 Center for Strategic & International Studies workshop includes text of speeches, presentations, and audio clips from various speakers.

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